Week 15 CFB Modern Bowl Playoff Rankings

CFB Rankings driven by data

by Abhi Gupta

December 5, 2018

The Modern Bowl Playoff (MBP) is a data driven college football ranking system, taking into account 7 major computer rankings used by the BCS from 1998-2013, the AP Top 25 Poll, and USA Today Coaches Poll to fully capture all aspects considered by human and computer ranking systems. More importantly, the MBP provides a clear formula behind each team's ranking, a component missing throughout the current playoff era. For Week 15 in the 2018 College football season, the MBP produces this Top 25:

 

Rank Team Score CFP Human Computer
1 Alabama 0.992 1 1 1
2 Clemson 0.960 2 2 2
3 Notre Dame 0.893 3 3 3
4 Georgia 0.860 5 5 4
5 Oklahoma 0.834 4 4 6
6 Ohio St 0.830 6 6 5
7 Michigan 0.765 7 7 7
8 UCF 0.639 8 8 9
9 LSU 0.619 11 11 8
10 Washington 0.611 9 9 10
11 Florida 0.571 10 10 11
12 Penn St 0.533 12 12 12
13 Wash St 0.463 13 13 13
14 Kentucky 0.401 14 14 17
15 Miss St 0.389 18 17 15
16 Texas A&M 0.372 19 20 14
17 West Virginia 0.328 16 16 18
18 Missouri 0.287 23 23 16
19 Fresno St 0.253 21 21 19
20 Syracuse 0.237 20 19 20
21 Texas 0.233 15 15 24
22 Utah 0.225 17 18 21
23 Iowa 0.107 N/R 29 22
24 Appalachian St 0.091 N/R 33 23
25 Boise St 0.077 25 24 28

 

Important Observations

  • 1. Using our metrics, the Playoff Committee would have chosen Georgia over Oklahoma as the #4 team with Oklahoma and Ohio State both being left out.
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  • 2. Interestingly, both Oklahoma and Ohio State increased their MBP scores from Week 14, but reduced the difference in their score (down to 0.004 from 0.006). Had the formula been decided as 3/4 computer and 1/4 human, perhaps we would be looking at a different set of rankings.
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  • 3. Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Iowa, and Appalachian State all see a difference of at least 6 between human and computer rankings. It would be interesting to understand why consistency is generally high amongst the rankings, except in cases of blatant disagreement such as these schools.
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The 8 Team Playoff

Conference champions were decided this week, and all of our assumptions from previous weeks held true. In fact, the 8 teams selected remained the same:

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  • SEC Champion: #1 Alabama
  • ACC Champion: #2 Clemson
  • Big 10 Champion: #6 Ohio St
  • Big 12 Champion: #5 Oklahoma
  • Pac 12 Champion: #10 Washington
  • At Large Bid 1: #3 Notre Dame
  • At Large Bid 2: #4 Georgia
  • At Large Bid 3: #7 Michigan
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Furthermore, the matchups in the MBP Playoff bracket remained the same as well:

 

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